Tensions between Israel and Turkiye have sharply increased following an Israeli airstrike on a Syrian military airbase, with Israeli leaders warning Ankara against expanding its military role in Syria.
The confrontation has raised concerns about a possible direct Israel-Turkiye clash inside Syria. However, there is currently no confirmation that the two countries are preparing for an open war.
Israel strikes Syrian airbase
- Israeli forces carried out an airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northwestern Syria on August 18.
- Israel linked the operation to concerns about a possible Turkiye military deployment at the facility. Israeli officials have warned that an expanded Turkiye military presence in Syria could create a security threat to Israel.
Türkiye has military cooperation in Syria
- Turkiye does have military personnel and an ongoing military relationship with Syria.
- Syrian officials confirmed that Turkiye military officers had visited the Abu al-Duhur facility before the Israeli strike. The visits were described as involving military training and an exchange of expertise.
- However, Turkiye says No Turkiye military personnel were present at the airbase when Israel carried out the attack.
- This distinction is important. While Turkiye is actively involved in military cooperation with Syria, Ankara denies that it had deployed troops to Abu al-Duhur or was establishing a permanent military base there.
- Syrian officials have also said there were no plans to establish a permanent Turkiye military base at the facility.
Israel warns Turkiye
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Israel will not tolerate an expanding Turkiye military presence in Syria if Jerusalem believes it threatens Israeli security.
- Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has also issued a strong warning to Turkiye President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over what Israel considers dangerous Turkiye military activity in Syria.
- The increasingly harsh statements have raised fears that Syria could become a direct military flashpoint between two powerful regional actors.
Why Syria is becoming a flashpoint
- Syria has become an important area of competition between Turkiye and Israel following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government and the emergence of new political and security arrangements.
- Turkiye has developed close relations with Syria’s new leadership and has supported military training and security cooperation.
- Israel, meanwhile, continues to conduct military operations in Syria when it believes developments there could threaten Israeli security.
- The possibility of a larger Turkiye military role has therefore become particularly sensitive for Israel.
Türkiye condemns Israeli action
- Ankara has strongly condemned the Israeli strike and rejected Israel’s allegations about a Turkiye military buildup at Abu al-Duhur.
- Turkiye has reiterated its support for Syria and its efforts to strengthen the country’s military and security capabilities.
- The Turkiye government has also warned against actions that could further destabilize Syria.
United States tries to prevent direct confrontation
- The United States is attempting to reduce the risk of a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkiye.
- U.S. officials are working on a deconfliction mechanism involving Turkiye, Israel and Syria. The goal is to establish communication channels that could prevent misunderstandings and accidental clashes between military forces operating in Syria.
- The U.S. involvement demonstrates growing concern that the dispute could escalate beyond diplomatic warnings.
Could Israel and Turkiye go to war?
- At present, there is no confirmation that an Israel-Turkiye war has begun or that either country has decided to launch a direct war against the other.
- However, the risk of confrontation has increased.
- The most dangerous scenario would be an Israeli attack that kills or seriously injures Turkiye military personnel or strikes Turkiye military infrastructure in Syria. A Turkiye military response could then turn the current confrontation into a direct Israel-Turkiye crisis.
- For now, the situation remains focused on Syria, where both countries have competing security interests.
What to watch next
The key developments to monitor are:
- Whether Turkiye increases its military presence in Syria.
- Whether Israel carries out further strikes against Syrian facilities linked to Turkiye.
- Whether Turkiye personnel become directly involved in an Israeli strike.
- Whether Turkiye responds militarily to future Israeli attacks.
- Whether the U.S.-backed deconfliction mechanism succeeds.
- Whether Ankara and Jerusalem establish direct channels to prevent escalation.
Bottom line
Turkiye has military personnel and ongoing military cooperation in Syria, but Ankara denies that Turkiye troops were deployed at Abu al-Duhur when Israel struck the base.
The Israel-Turkiye confrontation is nevertheless becoming one of the region’s most serious emerging flashpoints. A direct war has not started, but further Israeli strikes against Turkiye-linked facilities or Turkiye forces could dramatically increase the risk of a wider regional conflict.
