Climate scientists are warning that the current La Nina weather pattern is weakening and could transition into El Nino later in 2026, increasing the risk of extreme heat and weather disruptions worldwide.
Recent monitoring of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean shows that cooler waters associated with La Nina are warming toward neutral levels. This indicates that La Nina may end within the next few months. Forecast models suggest the climate system is likely to shift into neutral conditions during the first half of the year, followed by a growing chance of El Nino formation toward the end of 2026.
El Nino is known for raising global average temperatures and altering rainfall patterns across many regions. Scientists say its development would add to the existing warming caused by climate change, potentially making 2026 one of the hottest years on record. Heatwaves could become more intense and frequent, particularly in parts of Asia, Africa and the Americas.
In addition to heat, El Nino can disrupt monsoon systems, weaken rainfall in some regions while causing floods in others, and increase the likelihood of droughts and wildfires. Agricultural production could be affected as growing seasons become more unpredictable and water shortages increase.
Experts caution that long term forecasts remain uncertain and that El Nino is not guaranteed to form. However, early warning signs are strong enough for governments and disaster management agencies to begin preparing for higher heat stress, water scarcity and extreme weather events.
Climate researchers stress that even without El Nino, global temperatures remain elevated due to greenhouse gas emissions. If El Nino does develop, it could amplify these trends and create significant challenges for public health, food security and energy systems worldwide.
